Short summary:- Porto won first leg 3-1 at home. 2-0 second leg win will do for Bayern as they will win on away goals (if aggregate is 3-3 after two legs). If Porto score, Bayern will have to score four times to win the game.
FC Porto are on the verge of making history. The Portuguese side upset Bayern 3-1 in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal tie at the Estadio do Dragao, and Julen Lopetegui’s side will certainly feel that they can complete the job in Munich on Tuesday evening.
When the ties for the last eight were made, Porto, despite their domestic pedigree and fine form in Europe this season, were hardly expected to trouble Bayern. Their 3-1 result has been the talk of the European sporting world for the last few days and Porto fans will remember that the last time they made the semis of this competition, they won the trophy (back in the 2004 Mourinho era).
Porto 3-1 Bayern Munich First Leg Highlights (Video Courtesy Vimeo)
Bayern were very poor defensively, with Dante and Xabi Alonso in particular responsible for mistakes that gifted Porto goals. Coach Pep Guardiola also has to contend with a fair injury list- Arjen Robben, Mehdi Benatia, David Alaba and Javier Martinez will definitely miss the game while Franck Ribery is also unlikely to make it.
Ribery’s case has been a bit puzzling, with initial prognosis saying that he would be out “for a few days”, but he has now been out for more than a month. That put a dent in the relationship between Guardiola and Hans-Wilhelm Muller-Wohlfahrt, Bayern’s club doctor for close to four decades, with the latter putting in his papers, saying that “a relationship of trust” had been broken and that his medical team were “made responsible for the defeat (to Porto) for inexplicable reasons”. The old doctor is known as a “miracle man” in sport and has also treated the likes of Usain Bolt and Will Greenwood.
Check out this Vine video of Guardiola sarcastically applauding his bench (medical team) after Mehdi Benatia limped off injured
Back to the fixture. A 3-1 loss in Portugal means that a 2-0 win at the Allianz Arena will do for Bayern- they’ll progress on away goals. They’ve been scoring goals for fun in the Bundesliga this season- Hamburg were demolished 8-0, Bremen 6-0, and TSG 1899 Hoffenheim Hannover and Paderborn beaten 4-0. Any of those results will do for Bayern, but they will have to do it against a Porto side nicely rested and fit and raring to go.
Julen Lopetegui rested nine of the squad that beat Bayern for the weekend game against Academica. Porto won 1-0. In contrast, Neuer, Rafinha, Dante, Lewandowski, Bernat, Gotze and Muller, who all played against Porto, also featured in Bayern’s 2-0 win over the weekend in the Bundesliga- a competition in which Bayern have a 12 point advantage over their nearest rivals with five games left in the season.
What could have an impact on Porto’s thinking is their game immediately after the Bayern clash is against arch rivals Benfica, who currently lead FCP by three points in the Portuguese Liga. Like the Bundesliga, the Portuguese league also has five rounds to go. Also, Danilo and Alex Sandro are suspended for this clash after picking up yellows in the first leg in Portugal.
There are some tasty odds available for the punters. Will Hill, for example, has Bayern at 7/1 to win 2-0. That’s an £80 return on £10 staked. If you fancy Bayern to win, but not by enough to qualify- say 2-1, odds for those are at 15/2. Bayern to win 4-0 is at 12/1, an £130 return on £10 staked.
Porto have scored in every away game in the Champions League this season. Two against Shakhtar and Athletic Bilbao and three against BATE, and once against Basel in their round of 16 tie. They’ve had it somewhat easy in the competition so far, but if they beat Bayern, no one will be grudging them their spot in the last four.
Ricardo Quaresma scored two against Bayern (see video of his performance here. Quaresma is at 14/5 to score ANYTIME in the game, and so is Yacine Brahimi.
Muller-Wohlfahrt’s departure will add the pressure on Guardiola to get things right and if he doesn’t deliver against Porto, it would be considered a failure for a Bayern side that’s made three finals of the tournament since 2010. While Guardiola has said he will stay regardless of the outcome, certain things are easier said than done. He’ll certainly have to give his team a “Pep” talk (pardon the pun!) ahead of the game.
Bayern and Wolfsburg to win the CL and Europa League respectively would’ve been an attractive proposition when the QF ties were made, but both could be eliminated this week (Wolfsburg lost 4-1 to Napoli in the first leg), leading to the end of German representation in both competitions.